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Liberals to elect new leader tonight, bringing Justin Trudeau’s era at the helm to an end

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By the end of the day, the federal Liberals will have a new leader, and Canadians will know who the next prime minister will be.

This evening in Ottawa, the Liberal Party of Canada will be announcing the winner of the leadership race set in motion earlier this year by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.

After last-minute pushes to lock in votes, the time has come to learn who loyal Liberals want to steer them through the unpredictable waters of an on-again, off-again trade war with our closest ally.

The victor, in what was a condensed race, will also carry the party banner in the likely imminent federal election, which polls show to be an increasingly narrowing race with the Conservatives.

Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney is heading into Sunday widely seen as the front-runner and likeliest to win, outpacing his competition in both caucus and cabinet endorsements, as well as in fundraising.

According to the latest Elections Canada financial data, the former central banker has raised nearly three million dollars more than the others, gathered from close to 10 times as many donors.

The other three Liberals vying for the party’s top job are former deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland, former cabinet minister Karina Gould, and former MP Frank Baylis.

Freeland, whose shocking late-2024 resignation set into motion the events playing out today, ran a race focused on her bona fides in being the best person to take on U.S. President Donald Trump, but struggled to gain traction during the campaign.

Gould’s somewhat underdog campaign, and particularly her debate performances, were lauded by many Liberals, particularly younger voters, for demonstrating what her pitch of a new generation of leadership could look like.

And Baylis, who over the last 60 days leaned into his business and health-sector acumen, pitched himself as the least tied to Trudeau’s legacy and therefore best placed to take the party in a new direction.

Voting closes at 3 p.m. ET
Liberal loyalists have been casting their ballots online since Feb. 26. The window to vote closes on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET.

Of the nearly 400,000 Liberals who registered to participate in this election, the party said that as of Sunday morning, more than 163,000 had completed the verification process and more than 149,000 ballots have been cast.

While some voters have run into issues with the party’s verification processes, party spokesperson Parker Lund has said the system is working as it should to ensure a secure vote, and that there’s been a team working to troubleshoot more complex cases where voters’ I.D.’s don’t match up with what’s on file with the party.

The last time the Liberals ran a leadership race was in 2013, when the party was selecting a leader to steer them through third-party status. In that campaign, around 127,000 voters were registered, of nearly 300,000 who signed up. Approximately 104,000 ballots were cast.

How is the voting working?
To elect Trudeau’s successor, the Liberals are using a preferential ballot system that’s combined with a rating-based points system. Each federal riding has 100 points, and the leadership candidates earn points based on how much support they win in each riding.

If no candidate receives more than 50 per cent of the overall points on the first count, the contender with the least amount of votes is eliminated and their ballots are redistributed based on who those ballot casters selected as their second choice.

This process continues until someone receives more than 50 per cent of the points, but in this race, it’s not expected to be a drawn-out public process, as the party is slated to just announce the winner at the end of the count.

When will a winner be named?
The official program will get underway at 5 p.m. ET at the same sizable event space in downtown Ottawa that the Liberals have held past holiday parties and policy conventions.

The event is slated to last two hours, with Party President Sachit Mehra expected to reveal the results of the vote around 6:30 p.m. ET.

Trudeau will be speaking at the event, marking the end of his nearly 12-year run as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada that saw him rebuild the political organization, refresh its brand and catapult the party back into power.

It was in April 2013 that the man who once vowed he’d “never” be a politician clinched the party’s top job with nearly 80 per cent of the vote, promising “to do the hard work that is required.”

After an historic political tenure, look back at Trudeau’s career-defining moments
Former Liberal prime minister Jean Chretien will also address the crowd of Liberals who have travelled from across the country to the nation’s capital to watch some history unfold.

During his last weekend as Liberal leader, Trudeau spent time in his Montreal riding of Papineau, where he thanked his constituents for their support over the last 17 years that he’s been their MP.

Met with applause and cheers of “Justin,” according to the pool reporter on-scene, Trudeau told those gathered at the fundraiser that any proceeds raised would be used to support the candidate who will run to replace him in his riding, in the next federal election.

What happens after a winner is named?
The victor will become the new leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, but won’t immediately become the prime minister.

While Trudeau has said he has no intentions of trying to stay on in a caretaker capacity as prime minister, and is looking forward to handing over the reins to his “duly elected successor in the coming days or week,” a date for that transition has yet to be declared.

Procedurally speaking, Trudeau will have to visit the governor general and officially tender his resignation. At that point, Gov. Gen. Mary Simon would then invite the new Liberal leader to Rideau Hall and ask them to form a government and swear all the requisite oaths.

While the next fixed election date isn’t until Oct. 20, the Canada-wide campaign is expected to be called much sooner. As soon as Trudeau’s successor is sworn-in, they’ll be able to call an election.

Should the person not take that route and try to seize on the polling momentum the party has picked up through this race – seen as the most likely outcome – the embattled Liberal minority government is poised to fall on a confidence vote within days of Parliament’s scheduled resumption on March 24, resulting then in Canadians being sent to the polls this spring.

 

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